Many people believe that hurricanes are becoming more frequent and intense. Whether that’s due to actual changes or increased media coverage is still debated.

A 2020 report from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, part of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), summarized the current research on the topic. They rated the likelihood of future hurricane trends as follows:
• Likely increase in hurricane rainfall rates by 10–15%
• Likely increase in hurricane intensity by 1–10% globally for every 2°C rise in global temperature
• Likely increase in the proportion of storms that reach Category 4 or 5
• No significant change, or possibly a slight decrease, in the total number of global hurricanes

Additional Observations:

• It’s too early to confirm whether human-caused climate change has already affected Atlantic hurricane activity
• Some changes may be so minor that they remain undetectable with current technology

From a Floridian’s point of view, the frequency and intensity of hurricanes today are not drastically different from 100 years ago. The key difference lies in how much better prepared we are today — thanks to modern forecasting, stronger buildings, improved coordination, and earlier warnings.

Preparedness saves lives. That’s why it’s critical for Floridians to take warnings seriously, practice evacuation plans, and keep their hurricane kits well-stocked.